MOSCOW — The Kremlin was advised to annex Crimea and a large swath of southeastern Ukraine weeks before the Ukrainian government fell, a Russian newspaper reported on Wednesday, citing what it said was a memo that was presumably presented to the presidential administration.
Russia has long contended that it acted without premeditation in Crimea, and was only seeking to protect Russian speakers who it said were under threat of attack, and to stave off what it suspected was an attempt by NATO to move its forces into the region.
But a report in Novaya Gazeta, one of the few independent voices still publishing in Russia, said that well before the Ukrainian government fell in February 2014, the memo the newspaper had obtained advised the Kremlin to adopt the policy it has since pursued in Ukraine. The memo appears to have been drafted under the auspices of a conservative oligarch later suspected of funding the separatists, the report said.
The memo lays out what it says is the inevitable disintegration of Ukraine and suggests a series of logistical steps that Russia should take to make sure it remains in control of the situation, steps not far off from what actually occurred.
As early as Feb. 4, 2014, well before President Viktor F. Yanukovych resigned, on Feb. 21, the memo predicted his overthrow and suggested that Russia use the European Union’s own rules on autonomous areas to try to bind both Crimea and eastern Ukraine to Russia.
Dimtry S. Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, suggested that the memo was a hoax. “It seems like a fake,” he said.
“I don’t know whether this document exists at all, I don’t know who might be the author, but for sure the document has nothing to do with the Kremlin,” Mr. Peskov said. The authenticity of the document could not be independently verified.
The memo proposes a detailed strategy, one that the Kremlin seems to have largely followed, though it does not seem eager to annex large areas of southeastern Ukraine, as the memo urges.
With Ukraine likely to break into two — a European-aligned west and a pro-Russian east combined with Crimea — Moscow had to act quickly, the report said, particularly given that the Yanukovych government could soon fall.
Russia should take advantage of the “centrifugal forces” tearing the country apart in order to merge the east with the rest of Russia, the memo said. “The dominant regions for the application of force should be Crimea and the Kharkiv region,” it said, particularly given that strong groups there endorsed the idea of joining Russia.
Novaya Gazeta said that a conservative Russian oligarch, Konstantin V. Malofeev, could have been the mastermind behind the document. The newspaper quoted Mr. Malofeev’s communications team as denying any involvement by him.
The report said that oligarchs in Ukraine, who are not tempered by bureaucracy as much as their Russian counterparts, had lost control of the demonstrations in the central square in the Ukrainian capital, Kiev, known as the Maidan. It said the commanders in the square were “presumably controlled not by the groups of oligarchs, but to a great extent by Polish and British secret services.”
Russia has since switched tactics, blaming the United States for the protests.
The memo was also dismissive of the Ukrainian leader’s chances of bringing the situation under control.
“President Yanukovych is not a very charismatic person,” it said. “He is afraid to give up the presidential post and at the same time is prepared to trade the security officers for guarantees of keeping the post and of immunity after resignation.”
Moscow should abandon the Ukrainian leader, the report suggested. “There is no sense in further Russian political, diplomatic, financial or media support for the regime,” it said.
The report emerged as the cease-fire in southeastern Ukraine seemed to be taking hold.
In Kiev, the military said that for a second night in a row cease-fire violations had “significantly decreased,” and that the previous 24 hours had been the quietest since the Feb. 12 signing of a cease-fire in Minsk, Belarus.
Donetsk, Luhansk and the Mariupol area experienced no shooting, it said. In the past 24 hours, separatist forces have fired mortar rounds or other shells just 15 times and light weapons four times, the Ukrainian military said.
Yet concerns about the strength of the truce remained, with the Ukrainian military spokesman saying it could not move to the next stage — the withdrawal of heavy weapons — as long as the separatists continued fighting.
“For now, there is still no order on the withdrawal of weapons, as the fighters have not yet fulfilled the first point of the Minsk agreement, to cease-fire,” said Andriy Lysenko, the military spokesman.
The unease was also reflected elsewhere, with France, which helped negotiate the cease-fire, threatening new sanctions if fighting erupted around the strategic southern Ukrainian port of Mariupol.
“The problem today is particularly around Mariupol,” the French foreign minister, Laurent Fabius, told France Info radio. “We’ve told the Russians clearly that if there was a separatist attack in the direction of Mariupol, things would change completely, including in terms of sanctions.”
The comments came after the foreign ministers of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine met in Paris on Tuesday but made little progress in solidifying the agreement known as Minsk II. Violations on the ground would mean that Europe would again raise the question of sanctions, Mr. Fabius said.
Rebel forces said that they had already begun withdrawing heavy weapons, including 100 howitzers pulled back from the front during the first day of operations on Tuesday. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe issued a statement saying it could not confirm withdrawals from either side because it did not have a thorough accounting of the weapons there before the cease-fire.
But the rebel forces said the organization would soon be able to monitor the withdrawal.
There has been a kind of unspoken contest in Ukraine about whether the economic situation or the low-grade war was the worst news, and the economy seemed to edge out the conflict on Wednesday.
With the Ukrainian currency falling precipitously against the dollar, the central bank on Wednesday banned banks from buying foreign currency for the rest of this week, Reuters reported.
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