WARSAW — Andrzej Duda, the photogenic, 43-year-old candidate of Poland’s leading right-wing party, stunned the nation’s political establishment on Sunday by apparently wresting the presidency from the incumbent, Bronislaw Komorowski, who is allied with the party that has governed during eight years of stability and prosperity.
Official results will not be released until Monday, at the earliest, but a combination of exit polls and early vote tallies showed that Mr. Duda had won a fairly decisive victory, with 53 percent of the vote, over Mr. Komorowski, with 47 percent.
Mr. Komorowski conceded defeat before a glum gathering of his supporters saying, “It didn’t work out this time.”
The presidency is a largely ceremonial position in Poland. Mr. Duda’s victory, though, raises the real prospect that Civic Platform, the center-right party that has controlled the government since 2007, will be turned out in parliamentary elections this fall.
Polish voters, clearly eager for a change, rejected pleas from Mr. Komorowski that electing Mr. Duda would threaten Poland’s economic expansion and its close relationships with Germany and the European Union.
“Those who voted for me have voted for change,” Mr. Duda told a cheering throng in central Warsaw. “I know that we can be united and that together we can rebuild our country.”
For his part, Mr. Komorowski, 62, tried to reassure Civic Platform supporters that his loss did not mean the party would be turned out of government later this year.
“We have experienced worse trials, and we have fought worse battles,” Mr. Komorowski said. “It is only up to us to turn this failure into success. We will win.”
Mr. Komorowski ostensibly ran as an independent, but was a Civic Platform member when he served in Parliament and has continued to be closely allied with the party.
The election was being watched with great interest in Washington and across Europe because Poland, with the sixth-largest economy in the European Union, has been assuming a larger and more energetic role in continental affairs.
Donald Tusk, a former Polish prime minister, was elected president of the European Council last year, for instance, with the eager backing of Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany.
Both parties support Poland’s membership in NATO and the European Union and take a hard line against policies of Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin. But Mr. Duda’s party, Law and Justice, is much more socially conservative and nationalistic and tends to be more skeptical about surrendering authority over Polish affairs to European partners.
Civic Platform has forged very close ties with neighboring Germany, and sought a larger role and more prominent voice in European Union affairs.
Law and Justice, if it claims the more powerful prime minister’s seat in November elections, is expected to stress regional alliances and adopt a more distant relationship with the European Union.
“If they win power, Law and Justice will build alliances with Lithuania and Ukraine, and neglect Germany and France,” said Radoslaw Markowski, head of the comparative politics department at the Institute of Political Studies at the Polish Academy of Sciences. “They have a deeply rooted Euro-skepticism.”
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